unintended consequences

It was a long but enjoyable drive yesterday, about 4 hours. As usual I was tuned in to Radio 4

There was a really enjoyable programme at 1.30, just before my favourite ‘Gardeners Question Time’. It was called Quarter Life Crisis. I guess we have all heard of mid-life crisis, well this is half way there, affecting the 20 something’s.

Essentially it was about University Graduates that could not find jobs, but it highlights stupid government policies and how their short term thinking is damaging our whole society.

Today we not only have to hear what the government say, we have to work out what the mean and what they are NOT saying.

They are encouraging everyone they can, to go to university, but why? Is it really to improve the educational level of the whole country, or is it just a ploy to keep the numbers on the unemployment register down?

There are many many jobs where you do not need a degree, Butcher, Baker, Traffic Warden? So Mr Government I have two questions.

1 – If you want everyone to have a degree, then who is going to do the jobs that don’t need degrees?

2 – Having raised everyone’s intellectual capability, and then forced them into jobs well below their aspirations and expectations, what do you think will happen next? I would start off with two guesses, civil unrest and mass depression!

I was lucky, when I was a student, the government paid students to learn. But HEY, wake up government and smell the coffee! What have been the unintentional consequences of your policies?

First you stampede everyone to Uni, and then what – you suddenly realise you can’t support them all! – So you start to charge

Then you realise they can’t all afford to pay, so you offer them loans.

Then you allow the Uni’s to charge what they want, and guess what! Surprise surprise they all charge the maximum they can. Why not? It’s coming from your bottomless coffers?

So what is the consequence of all these debt laden students finishing their course?

Well, for a start, they have £15K+ of debt over their heads. Does that matter? It does if they are trying to get on the housing ladder?

Many of the students can’t get a job at all, so they have no chance of getting a house

Many that get low paid jobs don’t have to pay back the loan yet, because their income is too low. BUT, because it is so low, they do not have enough money to save for a house deposit, let alone make the mortgage repayments.

Those that do earn enough to start paying back the loan are too frightened to take on any more debt, so they don’t buy a house either.

And if there is no one around to buy the cheap ‘first-time-buyer’ homes, then those already in them, can’t sell and move up the housing ladder.

My simple analysis of the situation would lead to the prediction that this government policy will cause a housing problem.

Hey! Guess what! We do have a housing problem! Deja vu ? Or hindsight?

Well let’s carry on and make another prediction

Universities have bloated to suck in all these students and their high fees. So I predict that in the next year or two kids will realise that a future with huge debts and no jobs, is not a future for them. So they will aim for income rather than education. Universities will find themselves with too many financial commitments and too many staff, and they will start to topple too.